Ten Stories Moving the Market

The U.S. threatened Iran with what it called "the greatest financial offensive ever marshalled" as it prepared to ​roll out economic sanctions that target Iran's trade partners; Tehran in turn vowed to shut down all oil exports from the ‌Gulf "if the economic war continues" – Reuters. (Why you should acre – U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to roll out the new measures at 2 ET)

Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada broke down, according to officials from both countries, paving the way for the U.S. to impose 50% tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods and risking escalation of a trade war – WSJ. (Why you should care – Canada’s Ambassador to the U.S. Mark Wiseman said the breakdown was over fine print, suggesting there is still room to resolve their differences)

Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir will visit Tehran to continue efforts to bring peace ​and security to the region, according to Iran's foreign ministry; Pakistani officials said the talks ​would also address recent developments in the conflict – Reuters. (Why you should care – Munir has been an important negotiator in back-channel discussions between the U.S. and Iran)

Some of Nvidia’s biggest customers have been told that the prices of servers containing its artificial intelligence chips are going up more than 15% in many cases with memory chip costs soaring; the price hikes will go into effect on systems shipped early next year – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the potential for price increases speaks to the level of demand for Nvidia’s GPUs relative to supply)

Anthropic’s bankers said the San Francisco company could seek to raise more than $100 billion in its initial public offering; the offering could also value the company at $2 trillion – NY Times. (Why you should care – a $100 billion capital raise could reduce the need to raise money via the bond markets for data center spending)

Investors are looking for Kevin Warsh to clarify his views on how the U.S. central bank should react to stubborn inflation when the Federal Reserve chair speaks at the annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming; so far, Warsh has offered little insight on his views of the economy and avoided offering forward guidance on interest rates – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Wall Street typically takes time to get comfortable with a new Fed chair's tendencies)

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to signal where interest rates are headed has left the world unsure just how he thinks about the economy or inflation; from 2007 through 2011, Warsh submitted projections every quarter alongside his colleagues that showed he was more worried about the inflation outlook than most – WSJ. (Why you should care – the past projections fit with Warsh’s reputation as a hawkish policymaker)

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde could take over the presidency of the World Economic Forum ​at some point in 2027, according to Swiss newspaper NZZ; Lagarde was said to be described as the only candidate for the job at a board meeting this past weekend – Reuters. (Why you should care – Lagarde’s policy leanings have tended to be more hawkish in the recent past)

Spending on Anthropic’s largest and priciest model, Fable 5, has plateaued at only about 11 per cent of overall outlay on the company’s tools, more than two months after its release, according to spending data from 70,000 companies collected by payments group Ramp – FT. (Why you should care – companies are said to be uninterested in the high price, and they feel older models are capable of handling the bulk of their workloads)

Nvidia has agreed to pay $6 billion to license artificial intelligence models from Poolside and will extend job offers to more than 100 employees; the startup also received an additional $1 billion investment from Nvidia at a valuation of $12 billion, not including those funds – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – greater uptake of Poolside’s opein-weighted AI models would likely reduce token costs for businesses while boosting demand for compute capacity)

Economic Calendar:

U.S. – Chicago Fed National Activity for July (8:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $92 Billion in 13-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $79 Billion in 26-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)