Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

Anthropic PBC is telling prospective investors its second-quarter revenue jumped at least 14-fold versus the same period a year ago; the Claude chatbot maker reported a preliminary revenue figure of more than $11.5 billion in its latest completed quarter, compared to $787 million in the corresponding period in 2025, and $4.73 billion in the first quarter of this year – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the surge in revenue points to rising enterprise AI demand)

Intercepted communications and other intelligence suggest a strategic shift by Iran’s hardline leaders to raise the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies; Tehran viewed the mid-June memorandum of understanding was likely just an attempt by the U.S. and Israel to take pressure off the global economy and buy time for a bigger attack down the road. Instead of putting faith in talks, they took the past two months to prepare for a bigger fight – WSJ. (Why you should care – the communications point to the difficulty of reaching an agreement with Iran)

Middle Eastern oil producers are pressing ahead with shuttling large volumes of crude out of the Persian Gulf, helping keep a lid on prices and assuaging fears of an energy-driven inflation spike, even as the Iran war drags on – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – this oil flow in addition to the Saudi’s east-west pipeline puts export volume around two-thirds of the pre-war total)

U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to hit Iran hard economically, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington would impose measures on Tehran that have "never been seen" – Reuters. (Why you should care – the U.S. could impose a land blockade as well as sanction Chinese banks)

The Israel Defense Forces said it killed Abu Hassan Alaa, a senior Hezbollah commander, in southern Lebanon; a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament, an eventual Israeli withdrawal from occupied territory is set to expire – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – a lack of progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran implies the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will expire without an extension)

Heatwaves are increasingly taking a toll on Europe's economy, reducing productivity, curbing consumer spending and raising operating costs – Reuters. (Why you should care – the lack of ability to increase natural gas storage could drive European governments into increasing pressure on Iran to find a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz)

South Korea said discussions with the U.S. over strategic investment projects are continuing; talks with the U.S. are underway through various channels and the South Korean government is responding to bilateral trade issues through frequent communication, according to officials – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the White House is said to have expressed dissatisfaction with the government in Seoul as it has yet to announce projects under a $200 billion strategic investment commitment)

Jane Street took a $15 billion hit in ​July from its exposure to AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness and other tech stocks that were battered by the market selloff; the secretive Wall Street trading firm, however, has generated trading revenue of more than $40 billion year to date – Reuters. (Why you should care – recent financial market volatility has allowed the firm to generate more revenue so far this year than it did all of last year)

Central banks may be accidentally subsidizing government borrowing through their efforts to prevent a repeat of past market blowups, and policymakers are starting to worry that anti-crisis lending facilities could even be interfering with their own monetary policy – WSJ. (Why you should care – policymakers may be forced to hand over those measures to finance ministers in order to avoid financial market turbulence)

Berkshire Hathaway said it boosted the size of its investment ‌in Alphabet by 83% in the second quarter, making the parent of Google and YouTube its third-largest stock holding – Reuters. (Why you should care – Chairman Warren Buffett said he was the driver of the increased stake)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: BHP, DVLT

South Korean markets are closed

China – Industrial Production, Retail Sales for July

Japan – GDP for Q2

Japan – Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization for June (12:30 a.m.)

ECB’s Lane (Chief Economist) Speaks (5:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Empire State Manufacturing Index for August (8:30 a.m.)

Canada – CPI for July (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – NAHB Housing Market Index for August (10 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $92 Billion in 13-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $79 Billion in 26-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Treasury International Capital Net Long‑Term Transactions for June (4 p.m.)