Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

The White House expressed optimism about reaching a deal to end the war with Iran, while also warning of increasing economic pressure against Tehran if it remains defiant – Reuters. (Why you should care – U.S. and Iranian officials were said to be discussing as second round of negotiations in Pakistan as soon as this weekend)

U.S. President Trump told the Dutch king and queen that he wants to bring the war in Iran to a swift end; Trump said the only way to get Tehran back to the negotiating table was to increase the pressure – WSJ. (Why you should care – Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said European allies would support an international coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz once the fighting has ended)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that the U.S. would not renew general licenses that allowed for the temporary sale of certain Russian and Iranian crude; the White House had previously issued temporary waivers authorizing purchases of some otherwise-sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude already loaded onto ships – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the White House is likely using the shift to have other nations increase pressure on Iran to strike a deal)

Regional mediators are still pushing to extend the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran and arrange a second round of the talks; Pakistani Prime ‌Minister ​Shehbaz ​Sharif will ⁠visit ​Saudi ​Arabia, Qatar ​and ​Turkey from April ‌15 ⁠to 18 – WSJ. (Why you should care – face-to-face meetings are not expected to take place before Sharif has returned to Pakistan)

Iran could consider allowing ships to ​sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack as part of proposals it has ‌offered in negotiations with the United States, providing a deal is clinched to prevent renewed conflict – Reuters. (Why you should care – the proposal could offer another potential offramp for the conflict)

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi reiterated the importance of keeping the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. in place in his latest phone call with Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi; Motegi highlighted the need to ensure the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Japan is likely seeking a path for ending the conflict and restoring normal worldwide energy flows)

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey said the conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty by businesses; the qualitative survey noted that the conflict complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture – Federal Reserve. (Why you should care – most districts noted that economic activity was flat to up slightly)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said high oil prices are likely to keep underlying inflation nearly a percentage point above the Federal Reserve's ​2% target for the rest of this year, with the U.S. central bank likely needing to leave interest rates unchanged – Reuters. (Why you should care – Musalem, who is not a voter this here, has had a hawkish tendency since assuming his regional president role)

Cadence Design Systems and Nvidia are partnering to ​further the development of artificial intelligence for robots, according to the CEOs ‌of the two companies; Cadence is working to integrate its ​physics engines with Nvidia AI ​models designed to train robots inside computer simulations – Reuters. (Why you should care – the combination is seeking to design an ecosystem that prepares robots more quickly for real world application)

The tax law passed last summer is set to dole out over $100 billion in relief this year, including to the many people scrambling to meet the tax-filing deadline; Americans are getting new tax deductions for overtime, tips and being over the age of 65, as well as a bigger deduction for state and local taxes – WSJ. (Why you should care – the roughly 11% increase compared to last year should act as economic stimulus)

Economic Calendar:

Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund 

Earnings: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, NFLX, PEP, SCHW, TRV, TSM, USB

China – GDP for 1Q

China – Industrial Production, Retail Sales for March

U.K. – GDP for February (2 a.m.)

U.K. – Exports, Imports for February (2 a.m.)

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (3:30 a.m.)

Eurozone – CPI (Final) for March (5 a.m.)

ECB Meeting Minutes (7:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Continuing Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April (8:30 a.m.)

Fed’s Williams (New York, Voter) Speaks (8:35 a.m.)

U.S. – Industrial, Manufacturing Production for March (9:15 a.m.)

ECB’s Nagel (Germany) Speaks (12:45 p.m.

)Fed's Balance Sheet Update (4:30 p.m.)