A Rare Signal: What 10 Straight Higher Nasdaq Closes Tends to Mean

If the recent S&P 500 streak hinted at a momentum shift, the concurrent Nasdaq run all but confirmed it…

Following the analysis we published about the S&P 500 Index’s seven‑day winning streak and the historical tendency for those episodes to mark meaningful momentum shifts, yesterday brought an even rarer signal from the Nasdaq Composite Index.

The gauge just logged its tenth consecutive higher close, something that has only happened five other times since 2000. These streaks don’t show up in quiet markets. They appear when the stock market’s direction changes, breadth improves, and the tape transitions from tentative to decisive. In other words, they’re not noise, they’re regime shift signals.

Here are the six instances since 2000, including the current one…

What jumps off the page is the magnitude of the current run. The 2026 streak’s 13.7% gain is the strongest of the group — even surpassing the post‑crisis surge in 2009.

But the more important question is: What typically happens during these years?

Full‑Year Performance in 10+ Streak Years

The Pattern…

• Average full‑year return: +26.9%

• Median return: +28.2%

• Success rate: 5 out of 5 positive years (100%)

• Worst outcome: +5.7%

• Best outcome: +43.9%

Across cycles, these streaks tend to occur when liquidity conditions are improving, earnings revisions are turning up, or stock-market leadership is broadening. They’re not exhaustion signals. They’re confirmation signals. In other words, the market’s way of saying that internal momentum has shifted decisively. And notably, the current streak’s 13.7% gain during the run puts it in the company of years that ultimately delivered strong full‑year returns.

Bottom Line... last week’s S&P 500 signal and yesterday’s Nasdaq signal are pointing in the same direction: momentum is turning and turning sharply. History doesn’t guarantee outcomes, but when both major indices flash rare, high‑conviction streaks within days of each other, it’s usually not a coincidence. It’s the market telling you the underlying demand for risk has changed.

Five Stories Moving the Market:

The White House is expected to start accepting claims next week for refunds from the tariffs President Trump collected; Judge Richard Eaton of the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade said the government confirmed in a closed conference earlier in the day that it is on track to begin processing claims for refunds with interest on April 20 for some importers – WSJ. (Why you should care – the redistribution of those funds could act as $127 billion in stimulus, boosting consumption and spending)

The U.S. and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of peace talks in the coming days, before an April 7 ceasefire expires next week; U.S. President Donald Trump said he sees the war as “close to over,” and talks could resume “over the next two days” in Pakistan – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – more than 20 ships were said to have transited the Strait of Hormuz, up from as many as 13 last week)

The White House is said to have proposed a 20-year “suspension” of all Iranian nuclear activity; that would allow the Iranians to claim they had not permanently given up their right, under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to produce their own nuclear fuel – NY Times. (Why you should care – Iran is countering with a five-year proposal, implying there’s a permanent cease-fire deal to be found between the two sides)

Israel and Lebanon met for their first high-level talks in more than 30 years in what the Israeli ambassador to the US called a “victory for sanity,” even as officials played down hopes for an end to the war with Hezbollah – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Lebanon hailed the talks as the framework to reach a sustainable peace with Israel)

Meta will work with chip designer Broadcom to produce several generations of custom artificial intelligence ​processors under an expanded deal as the social media giant races ‌to build out the computing capacity needed to power AI features across its apps – Reuters. (Why you should care – the announcement speaks to the sudden turn in demand for compute power driven by the launch of Agentic AI at the start of this year)

Economic Calendar:

Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund

Earnings: ASML, BAC, FHN, HOMB, JBHT, MS, MTB, PGR, PNC

Eurozone – Industrial Production for February (5 a.m.)

U.S. - MBA Mortgage Applications (7 a.m.)

U.S. – Fed’s Barr (Board Member, Voter) Speaks (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Import Price Index for March (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Index for April (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – NAHB Housing Market Index for April (10 a.m.)

U.S. - Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventory Data (10:30 a.m.)

BoE’s Bailey (Governor) Speaks (11:50 a.m.)

SNB’s Schlegel (Chairman) Speaks (1 p.m.)

Fed’s Bowman (Board Member, Voter) Speaks (1:45 p.m.)

BoE’s Bailey (Governor) Speaks (2 p.m.)

Fed’s Beige Book (2 p.m.)

U.S. – Treasury International Capital Net Long‑Term Transactions for February (4 p.m.)