Ten Stories Moving the Market

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces staged a lightning advance on to retake the coast around ​the Bab el-Mandeb Strait up to the city of Mocha, according to the government; it said it has pushed the Iran-backed Houthis out of most of the areas they seized last month – Reuters. (Why you should care – such an outcome would allow Saudi Arabia to ship more energy cargoes to Asia via the Red Sea)

Kuwait is pumping oil at about 75% of the level seen before the Iran war, according to Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah; he said the country is producing about 2 million barrels a day, compared with about 2.6 million before the conflict began as more tankers take the risk of navigating the Strait of Hormuz – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – rising oil production should place downward pressure on global energy prices)

Saudi Arabia unexpectedly cut its oil prices for sale to Asia in ‌November to six-year lows; the largest Middle Eastern crude exporter set the November Arab Light crude oil official selling price to Asia at $5 a barrel below the average of Oman and ​Dubai prices, down $3 from the previous month – Reuters. (Why you should care – the price cuts are a sign Saudi Arabia is increasingly confident about its ability to ship crude oil cargoes abroad)

Iraq is set to hire additional oil tankers, with at least two arriving over the next few days as the country looks for greater control over moving its energy supplies through the heavily contested Strait of Hormuz – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – this is another sign that oil supply is increasingly making it out of Hormuz and onto global markets)

Wall Street banks began offloading part of a new $60bn debt package to fund Anthropic’s lease of Google semiconductors, the largest chip-financing deal to date as tech companies race to secure AI computing power – FT. (Why you should care – the deal’s pricing will be closely watched by Wall Street as an indicator of where bond yields are headed)

Voters in Quebec elected a separatist political party for the first time in more than a decade, setting the stage for more strained relations with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government and an eventual referendum on the province’s independence from Canada – Bloomberg. (Why you should care - Parti Québécois leadership wants to lower the region’s corporate tax rate to make it more attractive to outside businesses and investors)

Germany and France are proposing a new weapon for Europe to fight back against a flood of cheap Chinese imports; the countries, ahead of a European Union leaders’ summit next week, are proposing that the bloc lower its bar for blocking Chinese products and allow the bloc to move faster on such actions – WSJ. (Why you should care – such a move would place increasing downside pressure on the Chinese economy, as Beijing’s strategy to flood global markets with its goods is backfiring)

French bonds are under growing pressure from mounting worries about high debt levels and political gridlock as next year's presidential election nears; investors are increasingly worried about the government's ability to rein in its strained finances – Reuters. (Why you should care – a weakening euro could compound the government’s problems as it would drive up the costs of goods and services)

Higher global bond yields will put pressure on the Australian budget as the widespread selloff pushes debt refinancing costs higher, according to Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – a widespread pullback in government spending would likely weigh on global economic growth)

The U.S. Army is testing counter-drone technology in the U.S.-Mexico border area, seeking to ‌sharpen its defenses against the growing threat of drone use by cartels and emulate the rapid battlefield innovation happening in Ukraine's war with Russia – Reuters. (Why you should care – the government is likely to boost spending on drone technology as they become an increasingly important defensive and offensive component)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: STZ

Markets in China are Closed

Germany - Factory Orders for August (2 a.m.)

BOJ's Ueda (Governor) Speaks (2:35 a.m.)

BoE's Mann (MPC Member) Speaks (4:30 a.m.)

Eurozone - Retail Sales for August (5 a.m.)

U.S. - ADP Weekly Employment Change (8:15 a.m.)

U.S. - Trade Balance for August (8:30 a.m.)

Canada - Trade Balance for August (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Redbook Weekly Retail Sales (8:55 a.m.)

U.S. - IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for October (10 a.m.)

Fed's Bowman (Board, Vice Chair for Supervision) Speaks (10:45 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $95 Billion in 6-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

U.S. - EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (12 p.m.)

Treasury Auctions $58 Billion in 3-Year Notes (1 p.m.)

U.S. - American Petroleum Institute Crude Oil Inventory Data (4:30 p.m.)

Fed's Logan (Dallas, Voter) Speaks (6 p.m.)

Japan - Reuters Tankan Index for October (7 p.m.)

Japan - Average Cash Earnings for August (7:30 p.m.)

Fed's Williams (New York, Voter) Speaks (9:05 p.m.)