Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

President Donald Trump said U.S. officials had “very good” talks with Iranian envoys in New York, reviving fragile hopes for a new diplomatic off-ramp hours after he again threatened to annihilate the country – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the two sides were said to have talked for several hours and plan to meet again “very soon”)

South Korean ‌President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed "significant progress" in discussions on strategic investment projects during a 30-minute meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, according to Seoul's presidential office – Reuters. (Why you should care – South Korea’s Industry Ministry briefed lawmakers on potential U.S. energy projects its considering)

Anthropic and OpenAI both released cheaper versions of their leading models, as the price war between the two leading U.S. labs and their low-cost Chinese rivals intensifies – FT. (Why you should care – increased enterprise usage of AI models due to cheaper costs should boost demand for compute capacity and AI infrastructure components)

U.S. Donald Trump dismissed calls for an international agreement to put guardrails around the development of artificial intelligence, brushing off concerns about the dangers of frontier models going rogue – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the White House is concerned about the U.S. losing its competitive advantage against China)

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams defended ​the U.S. central bank's monetary policy implementation system, while saying it can be adjusted ‌and tweaked in line with changes in financial markets – Reuters. (Why you should care – Williams said ample reserves in the banking system have helped to effectively communicate monetary policy) 

JPMorgan Chase recently explored a way to ease a longstanding point of contention with credit-card partners such as airlines and retailers, a plan that would open the door for private credit to get a new piece of consumer debt; JPMorgan is said to have recently started looking into whether other funding sources could approve some of the cards that it rejects – WSJ. (Why you should care – private credit companies who approve the cards would take on much of the risk associated with default)

Saudi Arabia is in the early stages of starting up its east-west oil pipeline that has enabled Riyadh to bypass the Strait of Hormuz after the conduit was halted earlier this month – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the Saudis are said to be making preparations to restart the pipeline on Saturday, likely keeping downward pressure on global oil prices)

The ​French government will expand targeted energy relief for those most ‌affected by soaring fuel prices, Finance Minister Roland Lescure; the recent rises in prices has sparked protests and calls for even more by trade groups – Reuters. (Why you should care – the government is trying to ease inflation growth ahead of next year’s election)

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said last week’s interest rate hike by the central bank will help to slow inflation, though he stopped short of signaling whether additional tightening is needed – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the annualized pace of inflation growth is unlikely to slow significantly before the middle of next year)

SpaceXAI’s Grok Bot artificial intelligence agent has topped 400,000 weekly users roughly a month after it launched, a sign of modest early demand for a product that’s key to the AI ambitions of Elon Musk’s firm; numbers are said to have increased by 24% in the last week of data – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – increased uptake should drive demand for compute capacity)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: CTAS, PAYX, GIS

Markets in Japan are Closed

U.S. - MBA Mortgage Applications (7 a.m.)

Eurozone - HCOB Eurozone Composite (Preliminary) PMI for September (4 a.m.)

U.K. - S&P Global U.K. Composite PMI (Preliminary) for September (4:30 a.m.)

U.S. - S&P U.S. Global Composite PMI (Preliminary) for September (9:45 a.m.)

Fed's Barr (Board, Voter) Speaks (10:05 a.m.)

U.S. - Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventory Data (10:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $28 Billion in 1-Year 10-Month Floating Rate Notes (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $70 Billion in 5-Year Notes (1 p.m.)

Japan – au Jibun Bank Japan Composite PMI (Preliminary) for September (8:30 p.m.)