Ten Stories Moving the Market

Prospects for an extension to the U.S.-China trade truce are solidifying as the two sides discuss slashing tariffs on goods including American energy and agricultural products ahead of the leaders’ summit next week; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday he’ll meet this weekend with his Chinese counterpart, He Lifeng – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – easing trade tensions would ease inflation pressures while supporting economic growth)

Some of China’s scrappiest hackers-for-hire are evolving into full-service private intelligence agencies, exploiting advances in artificial intelligence and other technologies to put stolen secrets of foreign governments at the fingertips of the country’s security agencies – WSJ. (Why you should care – increasingly advanced artificial intelligence will continue to boost the need for cybersecurity)

The U.S.-Iran war has reached crisis point for Saudi Arabia and its de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; U.K. authorities fear recent hostilities from Iran-backed militant groups may have forced the closure the of Sausi Arabia’s East-West pipeline for six weeks – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Saudi Arabia’s lack of ability to export oil could push global energy prices higher)

At least two foreign tankers bound for American shores were targeted in cyberattacks now under U.S. government investigation, fueling concerns that Iran or other adversaries are seeking to widen the Middle East conflict, according to U.S. officials familiar with the incidents – WSJ. (Why you should care – Tanker cyberattacks that succeed in disrupting energy shipping would tighten seaborne crude and product flows just as markets are already jumpy over Middle East risk)

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is set to ​attend U.S. President Donald Trump's state dinner for ‌Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to a source familiar with the matter; Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi on September ​24 in Washington – Reuters. (Why you should care – a meeting between Huang and Xi could open the door for Nvidia to sell GPUs to China once more)

SemiAnalysis mapped 300+ local datacenter moratoriums across 17 states and found that only 1,525 MW of the 20 GW sitting in restricted zones faces genuine delay, concluding moratoriums aren't meaningfully slowing the U.S. buildout – SemiAnalysis. (Why you should care – the AI infrastructure buildout thesis stays largely intact despite the regulatory headlines, supportive of continued capex for power, semis, and data-center-exposed names)

The ​U.S. Senate failed to advance comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation backed by President Donald Trump in a major ‌blow for digital asset companies and Republicans who had championed the bill for months – Reuters. (Why you should care – the legislation wasn’t expected to pass Congress in its current form)

Bond traders have piled into bearish positions ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting, betting that the Treasury selloff driving yields to their highest in almost two decades will continue; brokerage firm Citigroup noted the positioning is tactically extreme – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – typically, when momentum investors are all piled into the same trade, they have a tendency to run for the exit at the same time)

A broad measure of American incomes reached a record high last year as upper-income households fared well and women’s pay gained ground compared with men, according to the Census Bureau – WSJ. (Why you should care - Record household income data reinforces the resilient-consumer narrative underpinning domestic economic growth)

Boeing is close to finalizing a ​delayed order for 150 of its 737 MAX jets after Turkish Airlines threatened to walk away from the ‌high-profile deal in a dispute over maintenance with engine maker CFM; the agreement was originally announced a year ago – Reuters. (Why you should care – the deal would boost the outlook for Boeing’s backlog and future revenue potential)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: LEN

U.K. - CPI for August (2 a.m.)

U.S. - MBA Mortgage Applications (7 a.m.)

Canada - Housing Starts for August (8:15 a.m.)

U.S. - Retail Sales for August (8:30 a.m.)

ECB's Elderson (Executive Board) Speaks (9 a.m.)

U.S. - Business Inventories for July (10 a.m.)

U.S. - NAHB Housing Market Index for September (10 a.m.)

U.S. - Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventory Data (10:30 a.m.)

ECB Lagarde (President) Speaks (1 p.m.)

Canada - BOC Summary of Deliberations (1:30 p.m.)

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Announcement (2 p.m.)

Fed’s Warsh (Chairman) Speaks (2:30 p.m.)