Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it had received proposals from mediators regarding the war with the U.S.; spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the diplomatic apparatus has been active in recent days and ideas had been conveyed – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the statement points to the fact that the two sides are still in contact)

The U.S. said it had completed ​a ninth straight night of attacks against Iran after earlier announcing that at least two U.S. military personnel were killed in Jordan, while U.S. allies in the region reported more Iranian attacks – Reuters. (Why you should care – the recent series of back-and-forth strikes are stoking speculation that hostilities between the U.S. and Iran are going to get worse, driving oil prices higher)

Iran’s hardliners have warned of a leadership coup as the U.S. truce comes under pressure; hardliners have accused Iran’s visible leadership – those running and representing the country as Khamenei remains in hiding – of plotting to consolidate power by suspending parliament, defying his orders in negotiations and attempting to disperse the nightly street rallies that had become a potent power base for fundamentalists – CNN. (Why you should care – the increasingly divided Iranian leadership structure points to how hard it will be for the U.S. to reach a peace deal in the near term)

Iraq is using a vast fleet of trucks to carry fuel oil through Syria and reroute flows away from the Strait of Hormuz, rapidly transforming its neighbor into the Middle East’s top export hub – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the Strait of Hormuz is quickly losing its importance as an oil export hub, hurting Iran’s leverage)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to revamp how it handles three components of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index; that is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for measuring domestic inflation growth – WSJ. (Why you should care – the changes could lower the pace of inflation growth moving forward, bringing interest rater cuts back into the conversation)

China’s top leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures for the world’s second-largest economy this month after a sharp slowdown in second-quarter GDP; leaders are expected to focus on speeding up bond issuance at their next Politburo meeting to enable greater infrastructure spending – FT. (Why you should care – the government in Beijing is looking for ways to arrest slowing economic growth)

The European Central Bank is likely to hold off on a second interest-rate hike this week while keeping that option open for September; after raising borrowing costs in June following a spike in energy prices, officials initially expressed confidence that peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran would limit the fallout of the conflict on euro-zone consumer prices – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – oil prices have experienced a significant pullback since the ECB’s last interest rate decision)

Taiwan Semiconductor is seeing strong, multi-year demand for its AI chips as it invests a further $100 billion to expand its Arizona facilities, ​but it needs to address several challenges, such as a shortage of construction workers, according to Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang – Reuters. (Why you should care – Huang said the company is investing for multi-year structural demand)

Meta is in talks to lease computing power from its artificial intelligence data centers to Anthropic in a deal that could be worth as much as $10 billion over two years; Anthropic proposed a deal to Meta in June where it would make payments in monthly increments – NY Times. (Why you should care – the deal highlights the continued strength in demand for compute capacity)

Domino's Pizza missed sales and profit estimates for the second consecutive quarter; Same-store sales in the ​U.S. rose 0.1% for the quarter ended June 14, short of ​analysts' estimates for a 0.62% rise, according to data compiled by LSEG – Reuters. (Why you should care - CEO Russell Weiner reiterated his April warning that eroding consumer sentiment continues to weigh on spending)

Pre-Market Levels:

S&P Futures +0.28%, Nasdaq Futures +0.62%, Dow Jones Futures +0.15%, Russell 2000 Futures +0.31%

Europe:

EuroStoxx 50 +0.06%, U.K. FTSE -0.48%, German DAX +0.17%, French CAC +0.19%, Italian MIB +0.01%, Spanish IBEX -0.02%

Asia:

Japan's Nikkei closed, Japan's TOPIX closed, China's Shanghai Composite +0.85%, Hong Kong Hang Seng +2.36%, South Korea's KOSPI -4.46%, Taiwan's TSE -0.07%

Currencies:

Dollar -0.01%, Euro -0.07%, Japanese Yen -0.02%, British Pound +0.14%, Canadian Dollar -0.06%, Swedish Krona -0.20%, Swiss Franc -0.09%

Risk:

VIX -2.18%, Bitcoin -0.42%, Ethereum -0.17%

Growth:

WTI Crude -0.12%, Brent Crude +0.44%, Nat Gas -2.13%, Copper +0.81%

Safety:

Gold +0.20%, Silver +1.41%

Sovereign Bonds:

U.S. Treasury 10-yr yield +2.1 bps at 4.562%

U.S. Treasury 2-yr yield +1.5 bps at 4.187%

German 10-yr yield +1.7 bps at 3.141%

French 10-yr yield +1.2 bps at 3.937%

U.K. 10-yr yield +3.3 bps at 4.986%

Japanese 10-yr yield -2.2 bps at 2.692%

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: AGNC, CCK, DPZ, STLD, WRB, WTFC, ZION

Japanese markets are closed

Canada – CPI for June (8:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $92 Billion in 13-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $79 Billion in 26-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)