Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

U.S. President Donald Trump warned a fragile ceasefire with Iran may be over, raising the prospect of an end to peace negotiations and a potential renewal of fighting between the two countries – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Trump is likely getting frustrated by a lack of progress in negotiations with Iran and trying to increase pressure)

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz, marking an escalation that threatens to complicate negotiations to end the U.S.-Iran war - WSJ. (Why you should care – the launches were likely driven by the mourning of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose funeral started July 4 and will end with his burial on July 9)

The United ‌States re-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil, as a U.S. official warned that Iran's attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were "wholly unacceptable" and would be met with consequences – Reuters. (Why you should care – the U.S. is hampering Iran’s access to funds if it’s not willing to abide by the terms of the framework peace deal)

The U.S. military launched new attacks on Iran in retaliation for Iranian attacks against commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the U.S. Central Command; the U.S. said Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire – NBC News. (Why you should care – Iran is trying to press for the right to charge fees for transit in the Strait of Hormuz, a clear violation of international law)

China has lifted refined fuel export restrictions for ​the rest of July and allowed a private refiner to resume shipments after a four-month halt, as the world’s biggest refiner returns towards normal after disruptions from the Iran war – Reuters. (Why you should care – Saudi Arabia recently discounted the price on Asian shipments, indicating supply is ample)

The wave of AI-fueled earnings surprises that powered stocks in the last earning season will be tough to repeat, making it unlikely the results alone will spark a major rally, according to Goldman Sachs’ Head of Asset Allocation Christian Mueller-Glissmann - Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the statement is likely to increase investor pessimism heading into second-quarter earnings releases)

A critical ​readout of the first Federal Reserve policy meeting overseen by Chairman Kevin Warsh may offer greater insight ‌into the "family fight" the new central bank leader said unfolded over two days last month as officials opted to leave interest rates unchanged and emphasized their commitment to controlling inflation – Reuters. (Why you should care – the release of the latest FOMC minutes are likely to be given a hawkish spin by the media)

Just days before July 4, an Agriculture Department official called some of the country’s top grocers asking them to lower beef prices; Tate Bennett, the chief of staff for USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, spoke last week with grocers including Walmart, Kroger, and Albertsons about the topic – WSJ. (Why you should care – the White House is likely trying to pull every lever it can to lower inflation growth headed into the November mid-term elections)

Nvidia’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom kicked off and sent the shares into the stratosphere; the chipmaker’s graphics processing units, or GPUs, still dominate the artificial intelligence data center market – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – given solid demand and backlog, Wall Street is likely underestimating the company’s ability to keep growing revenue moving forward)

Global supply chain pressures eased in June, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of ‌New York, as the impact of the Middle East war began to fade - Reuters. (Why you should care – the June data fell sharply compared to May and is still within the realm of typical standard deviations)

Pre-Market Levels:

S&P Futures -0.87%, Nasdaq Futures -1.32%, Dow Jones Futures -1.10%, Russell 2000 Futures -1.13%

Europe:

EuroStoxx 50 -1.87%, U.K. FTSE -1.41%, German DAX -2.12%, French CAC -2.04%, Italian MIB -1.29%, Spanish IBEX -2.50%

Asia:

Japan's Nikkei -2.11%, Japan's TOPIX -1.23%, China's Shanghai Composite -0.49%, Hong Kong Hang Seng +2.99%, South Korea's KOSPI -5.35%, Taiwan's TSE +0.68%

Currencies:

Dollar +0.13%, Euro -0.01%, Japanese Yen -0.24%, British Pound -0.10%, Canadian Dollar +0.17%, Swedish Krona -0.19%, Swiss Franc -0.04%

Risk:

VIX +13.01%, Bitcoin -1.99%, Ethereum -2.38%

Growth:

WTI Crude +5.47%, Brent Crude +5.69%, Nat Gas +1.50%, Copper -2.43%

Safety:

Gold -2.32%, Silver -4.18%

Sovereign Bonds:

U.S. Treasury 10-yr yield +4.2 bps at 4.57%

U.S. Treasury 2-yr yield +4.8 bps at 4.21%

German 10-yr yield +8.4 bps at 3.07%

French 10-yr yield +11.6 bps at 3.90%

U.K. 10-yr yield +10.0 bps at 4.95%

Japanese 10-yr yield +1.5 bps at 2.89%

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: HELE, LEVI

U.S. - MBA Mortgage Applications (7 a.m.)

ECB's Nagel (Germany) Speaks (7:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Wholesale Inventories for May (10 a.m.)

U.S. - Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventory Data (10:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $39 Billion in 10-Year Notes (1 p.m.)

U.S. – FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.)

U.S. – Consumer Credit for May (3 p.m.)

China – CPI, PPI for June (9:30 p.m.)