Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

The U.S. and Iran have agreed to stop attacking each other before peace talks resume this week over the Strait of Hormuz and other issues, paving the way to end days of tit-for-tat attacks that tested a fragile truce – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – U.S. officials said technical talks on all issues are expected to continue this week and ships can once more move freely through the Strait of Hormuz)

The U.S. and Iran exchanged blows in the Persian Gulf, extending fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and testing a fragile ceasefire meant to end months of hostilities; the U.S. operation targeted Iranian communication and air-defense sites, drone-storage facilities and minelaying capabilities, the U.S. military said, following what it said was an attack on an oil tanker in the strait – WSJ. (Why you should care – the U.S. appears to be going after Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping after Tehran had previously agreed to let commercial traffic pass through unharmed)

​Israel and Lebanon reached a framework agreement which establishes ⁠a clear ​process to restore ​Lebanon's sovereignty, disarm Hezbollah, and dismantle its infrastructure; the ​agreement enables ​Israel to return to ‌its ⁠borders once the threat to its citizens is ​removed and ​creates ⁠a trilateral Military Coordination ​Group for ​Lebanon, ⁠facilitated by the United States – Reuters. (Why you should care – Iran-backed Hezbollah rejected the deal, vowing to keep fighting against Israel)

One month in, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is showing Wall Street what he thinks his role demands, altering the machinery his predecessors built; he announced five task forces on such matters as communications and the data the Fed relies on – WSJ. (Why you should care – reduced policy transparency may lead to less risk taking and more stable financial markets)

OpenAI is rolling out a preview version of a more capable new artificial intelligence model to select partners before making it available more widely in the coming weeks, following pressure from the Trump administration to stagger the release; the ChatGPT maker said it’s introducing the GPT-5.6 model series to a small group of trusted partners whose names have been approved by the US government – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the U.S. government is concerned about OpenAI’s comments about being able to safeguard against vulnerabilities created by GPT-5.6)

Chinese artificial-intelligence systems have matched the performance of Anthropic’s powerful model Mythos in some cybersecurity scenarios, a development poised to reset the global tech race and pressure the White House in its overhaul of U.S. AI policy – WSJ. (Why you should care – the advancements point to the increasing need for enterprise cybersecurity protection)

The authorities in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula controlled by Russia, declared a state of emergency after weeks of intense air attacks by Ukraine, including a wave of drone strikes overnight that appears to have been one of the largest since the war began – NY Times. (Why you should care – Ukrainian technology advances have increasingly changed the tide in the war with Russia, bringing the fight closer to Moscow)

Global pressures from rising public debt to financial fragilities and the sustainability of ​the AI boom are increasing risks, underscoring the need for disciplined policymaking, according to the Bank for International ‌Settlements – Reuters. (Why you should care – the BIS is worried about rising inflation and said global policymakers must act to preserve stability)

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said signs of widespread inflation led him to pencil in one interest-rate increase for this year in the central bank’s economic projections released earlier this month; Kashkari said he’s worried about broader inflationary pressures in the economy – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Kashkari, a monetary policy voter, is shifting from a dovish to a more hawkish tilt)

S&P Global affirmed its "AA+" credit rating for the U.S., saying the economy's resilience supported ​solid fiscal revenue collection; the ratings agency said it ‌expected the U.S. economy to grow at around 2% over 2026 to 2029, adding that despite heightened political polarization, strong ​institutions and the system of checks and balances ​will continue to anchor policy outcomes – Reuters. (Why you should care – S&P said it expects robust technology investment to continue to drive domestic economic growth)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: AVAV, CNXC

ECB’s Schnabel (Executive Board) Speaks (Saturday)

RBA’s Bullock (Governor) Speaks (Sunday)

Fed’s Barkin (Richmond, Non-Voter) Speaks (Sunday)

Japan – Retail Sales for May

BoE’s Pill (Chief Economist) Speaks (1 a.m.)

Spain – CPI for June (3 a.m.)

Eurozone – Private Sector Loans for May (4 a.m.)

U.K. – Net Lending to Individuals for May (4:30 a.m.)

Eurozone – Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectation for June (5 a.m.)

U.S. – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for June (10:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $92 Billion in 13-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $79 Billion in 26-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

ECB’s Lagarde (President) Speaks (1:30 p.m.)

South Korea – Industrial Production for May (7 p.m.)

Japan – Industrial Production for May (7:50 p.m.)

China – Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing, Composite PMI for June (9:30 p.m.)