Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed peace talks to Russian leader Vladimir Putin in a rare and combative open letter on Thursday, as efforts to end more than four years of war gained momentum; Germany, France, and the U.K. are said to have discussed to possibility of negotiations – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – an end to the conflict in Ukraine could help to free up more commodity and energy asset supply)

The Iran-backed ​Hezbollah militia rejected a new ceasefire in Lebanon and Israel said it would not withdraw troops from the ‌country, undermining U.S. efforts in cease-fire negotiations with Tehran – Reuters. (Why you should care – Iran has said Israel at a minimum must withdraw to its positions held before the conflict for negotiations to move forward)

Iran permitted monitors at the United Nations atomic watchdog this week to visit its Bushehr nuclear power plants while stonewalling inspectors’ demands to verify the condition and location of its enriched uranium stockpile – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – stonewalling on the verification and condition of enriched uranium stockpiles may signal difficulty in striking a deal around nuclear weapons capabilities)

The big reveal at Apple’s annual developer conference next week is expected to be a modern version of Siri that will look more like ChatGPT; the new Siri, built atop Google’s Gemini technology, is expected to offer a more modern search experience, remembering users’ prior queries and accessing data from their devices for personalized responses – WSJ. (Why you should care – a unique AI experience for iPhone users could be a new catalyst or Apple’s shares)

Lululemon Athletica cut ​its annual revenue and profit forecast, as the athletic apparel maker grapples with waning brand appeal in ​the U.S. amid tough competition; the company expects fiscal year 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared to the previous forecast for 2% to 4% growth - Reuters. (Why you should care – the guidance is likely a sign that consumers are increasingly becoming price sensitive after years of steady price growth)

The largest U.S. banks plan to launch a tokenized deposit network next year that will connect traditional payment rails with the infrastructure that digital assets run on; it would allow tokenized deposits to move instantly across blockchain technology with 24/7 settlements – WSJ. (Why you should care – the network will be an answer by the banks to companies seeking to offer yield on stablecoins)

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary ​Daly said ‌that while she believes AI over a five- ​to 10-year window ​could be a deflationary ⁠force, the effect ​is "not a pressing issue" ​for monetary policy which operates on a 12-month horizon – Reuters. (Why you should care – Daly said she thinks tariffs and oil, not AI, are the main causes of the current inflation gains)  

The share of U.S. small businesses saying they’re planning new hires or are having trouble filling jobs fell in May to a six-year low, according to the National Federation of Independent Business; a seasonally adjusted 9% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 4 percentage points from April – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – these are weakest small-business hiring numbers since the COVID lows)

Private-credit firms are tightening their lending standards, increasing interest rates and other fees they charge on new loans, restraining how much debt they give borrowers and closing loopholes that allow financing to be taken out against borrowers’ assets – WSJ. (Why you should care – private-credit industry executives feel the recent tightening credit standards have caused a shift from a borrower-friendly to lender-friendly environment)

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston economists said that the U.S. economy’s exposure to the global ​economy has changed “fundamentally” since the 1970s amid more energy efficiency and increased domestic production; the changes mean that ​an oil price surge has less of an impact on employment relative to the past – Reuters. (Why you should care – the paper said monetary policy decisions should focus more on containing inflation than worrying about employment losses)

Economic Calendar:

France – Exports, Imports for April (2:45 a.m.)

Eurozone – GDP for Q1 (5:00 a.m.)

U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings for May (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls for May (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Unemployment Rate for May (8:30 a.m.)

BoE’s Dhingra (Board Member) Speaks (9:40 a.m.)

U.S. - Baker Hughes Rig Count (1 p.m.)

BoE’s Bailey (Governor) Speaks (2:00 p.m.)

U.S. – Consumer Credit for April (3:00 p.m.)

U.S. - CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report (3:30 p.m.)

Fed Releases Balance Sheet Updates on Commercial Banks (4:15 p.m.)