Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

Iran gave the U.S. a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage, according to U.S. officials – AXIOS. (Why you should care – while it seems unlikely the U.S. will accept a deal that doesn’t include Iran’s nuclear program, the proposal could help move the conversation forward)

President Donald Trump cancelled a trip by two U.S. envoys to Iran war mediator Pakistan this weekend, dealing a ‌new setback to peace prospects after Iran's foreign minister departed Islamabad after speaking only to Pakistani officials – Reuters. (Why you should care – while negotiations aren’t dead, it would appear the timeline for a potential settlement is extending)

Tensions between Iranian leaders over talks with the U.S. spilled into the open this week, highlighting how difficult it will be for President Trump to secure the diplomatic win he wants to end the war; it’s now becoming clearer that there are deep divisions within Iran’s leadership over how far to go to strike a deal with the Americans – WSJ. (Why you should care – the two sides within Iran are having difficulty agreeing on which concessions would be in the country’s best interest)

China is tightening approvals for overseas borrowings; the National Development and Reform Commission is taking four to six months to approve quotas for bonds and loans with tenors of one year or longer, which is about twice as long as before – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the government in Beijing has been trying to halt a rapid buildup of off-balance-sheet debt by local governments)

The U.S. and the European Union deepened their coordination on critical minerals as part of a broader push by Western allies to loosen ‌China's grip on materials crucial to advanced manufacturing – Reuters. (Why you should care – the two sides are hoping to secure critical supply chains in addition to removing a leverage point China has used in trade negotiations)

Lynas Rare Earths, an Australian company, has begun pumping out heavy rare earths, the elusive kind that China dominates; that has allowed the Pentagon to get its hands on the rarest of the rare-earth elements used in military equipment – WSJ. (Why you should care - Lynas is at the vanguard of an effort by the U.S. and allies to prevent Beijing from using its monopoly power to squeeze the rest of the world)

The war in the Middle East has bolstered America’s status as an energy-exporting powerhouse, with Asia and Europe clamoring for every shipment of U.S. crude, natural gas and jet fuel they can get – WSJ. (Why you should care – the number of crude tankers headed to the U.S. are more than triple pre-war levels)

U.S. drivers have started cutting back their spending at the pump in an attempt to blunt the impact of spiraling petrol prices triggered by the Iran war; average petroleum sales per station in the northeastern U.S. fell 4.3 per cent in March, compared with 0.6 per cent growth in the same period last year – FT. (Why you should care – the data point to increasingly price-conscious U.S. consumers, potentially weighing on economic growth)

The Justice Department said it would end its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell; U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced the move late last week, saying her office is closing an inquiry into Powell’s testimony to Congress about cost overruns on the renovation of two historic Fed buildings – WSJ. (Why you should care – the move should clear the path for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Federal Reserve chair)

Google’s cloud boss says that a pair of new chips and rapid advances at its DeepMind AI lab will help it close the gap with Microsoft and Amazon in the fiercely competitive cloud computing market; Thomas Kurian said Google’s “full-stack” AI strategy — which includes building chips, data centers, foundation models, and products in-house — was starting to pay off – FT. (Why you should care – the cloud unit is on track to double revenues this year compared to 2024))

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: AMKR, CCK, CDNS, CLS, DPZ, SANM, UHS, VZ

China – Industrial Profits for March

Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence for May (3 a.m.)

U.S. – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for April (10:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $89 Billion in 13-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $77 Billion in 26-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $69 Billion in 2-Year Notes (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $70 Billion in 5-Year Notes (11:30 a.m.)

ECB’s Schnabel (Board Member) Speaks (1:30 p.m.)