Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

Minutes from the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting underscored that the war hadn’t created the Fed’s reluctance to cut so much as it had complicated an already-cautious posture; even before the conflict, the path to rate cuts had narrowed – WSJ. (Why you should care – an end to the Iran conflict could remove the need to cut rates in support of slowing economic growth)

Israel pounded Lebanon with its heaviest strikes yet, drawing a threat of retaliation from Iran; Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bager Qalibaf said Israel had already violated several conditions of the ceasefire by ramping up its parallel war against the Iran-aligned militia Hezbollah – Reuters. (Why you should care – the back and forth is likely to continue until the two sides sit down at the negotiating table)

Mediators said late Wednesday that Iran had made a number of concessions on its original list of conflict-ending demands, including softening its positions on the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region, war reparations and nuclear enrichment – WSJ. (Why you should care – Iran may be sending different signals with the public-facing media than it is behind the scenes with negotiators)

U.S. President Donald Trump is dispatching his Iran negotiating team, led by Vice President JD ​Vance, to Pakistan for talks, adding that the ‌first round of negotiations would take place on Saturday – Reuters. (Why you should care – until both sides sit down at the negotiating table, there are likely to be cautious headlines about continued strikes in the Middle East)

Iran told mediators it would limit the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to around a dozen a day and charge tolls under the cease-fire struck by U.S. President Donald Trump, showing Tehran plans to tighten its grip on the world’s most important energy-shipping lane – WSJ. (Why you should care – there were roughly 100 per day allowed to pass through the Strait prior to the conflict)

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer promoted the creation of a U.S.-China board of trade, while downplaying the possibility of a broad investment push between the two countries, a sign of what could be at the center of talks when Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump meet next month – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Greer said a resolution on non-sensitive goods trade could remove barriers to tackling more difficult topics)

Big U.S. banks may be able to release up to $320 billion in capital under revised draft rules unveiled by ​regulators last month, according to Morgan Stanley; the Federal Reserve said last month ⁠that capital levels at big U.S. banks would fall by between ​4.8% and 7.8% under softened draft "Basel" and "GSIB surcharge" rules – Reuters. (Why you should care – the extra lending capacity could help to spur domestic economic growth)

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said it will respond with interest-rate increases to any acceleration in core inflation; Breman said inflation risks are currently to the upside – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the RBNZ suggested it is willing to sacrifice economic growth in order to return inflation back to target)

A federal appeals court declined to block the Pentagon's national security blacklisting of AI ‌company Anthropic; the company alleged the Pentagon overstepped its authority when it designated Anthropic a national security ​supply-chain risk over its refusal to remove certain usage guardrails on its products – Reuters. (Why you should care – if the ruling is upheld, it could complicate Anthropic’s plans to go public later this year)

Meta Platforms debuted its latest artificial intelligence model, known as Muse Spark; in a pivot from the company’s prior open-source strategy, the new model is closed source, meaning its design and code won’t be made public – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the company said there are several larger models in development

Economic Calendar:

Earnings – BB, PLCE, WDFC

Japan – Household confidence for March (1 a.m.)

Germany – Exports, Imports for February (2 a.m.)

Germany – Industrial Production for February (2 a.m.)

Japan – Machine Tool Orders (2 a.m.)

SNB’s Schlegel (Chairman) Speaks (4 a.m.)

U.K. – BOE Credit Conditions Survey (4:30 a.m.)

U.S. – GDP (Third Take) for Q4 (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Continuing Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – PCE for February (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Personal Consumption, Income, Spending for February (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Wholesale inventories for February (10 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $22 Billion in 30-Year Bonds (1 p.m.)

Fed's Balance Sheet Update (4:30 p.m.)