Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

Anthropic said its revenue run rate has now topped $30 billion, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025, and confirmed plans to work with Broadcom and Google to power its burgeoning operations – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the jump in revenue speaks to the demand for Agentic AI, likely boosting the need for more semiconductors and data center capacity)

Iran rejected the latest two-tier proposal from the U.S. and its regional mediators to end hostilities for 45 days in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz, and instead it sent a counterproposal saying it wants a permanent end to the war; Tehran asked for guarantees for a permanent cease-fire, lifting of sanctions, compensation for damages inflicted in the war, as well as a new arrangement for governing the strait – WSJ. (Why you should care – President Donlad Trump said the counter proposal was a step in the right direction but still not good enough)

The U.N. Security Council is expected to vote on a resolution to ‌protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but in significantly watered-down form after veto-wielding China opposed authorizing force – Reuters. (Why you should care – under international law, once armed conflict arises, neutral ships retain the right to pass, while belligerents face limits)

The U.S. and Israel have a set of targets lined up in Iran designed to cripple the country’s economy and ensure the regime’s recovery from this war is long and painful – WSJ. (Why you should care - Israel is said to be awaiting White House authorization to begin striking Iran’s energy facilities)

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both see inflation as a far bigger problem than employment, underscoring their support for tighter rather than looser monetary policy ​as the Iran war puts upward pressure on energy prices and the job market remains ‌stuck in low gear – Reuters. (Why you should care – Hammack, a voter, is likely to advocate for tighter monetary policy at the next meeting in April)

The administration of President Donald Trump will raise payments to Medicare insurers by 2.48% next year, a dramatic increase after a preliminary proposal holding the line on payments drew fierce criticism from the industry and torpedoed shares of the largest companies – WSJ. (Why you should care – the final rate increases industry payouts by roughly $13 billion in 2027 compared to the January proposal for no change)

The Philippines’ inflation spiked to 4.1% in March as the Iran war choked energy supply and pushed up fuel prices, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority; that exceeded the median estimate of 3.8% and the 2.4% recorded in February – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – global inflation data for March is likely to experience a sharp rise above central bank targets)

Britain will host a military planning meeting of more than 40 countries willing to secure safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz after the war in the Middle East ends; participants include France, Germany, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the United Arab Emirates – FT. (Why you should care – the group had previously condemned Iran for violating international law by hijacking a global transit route)

U.S. services sector growth slowed in March, while prices paid by businesses for inputs increased by the most in more than 13 years, an early indication that the prolonged war with Iran ​was boosting inflation pressures – Reuters. (Why you should care – if the Iran conflict persists, similar results from the Institute for Supply Management could stoke domestic and global stagflation fears) 

Rising fuel prices due to the Iran war are fanning the embers of transportation costs, which were already rising due to a shrinking pool of drivers in the U.S.; haulers have raised the weekly per-mile fuel surcharge paid by shippers to its highest since 2022, according to Truckstop.com data – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – higher-for-longer oil prices are likely to underpin headline inflation growth)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings – AEHR, GBX, SKIL

Japan – Household Spending for February

Sweden – CPI for March (2 a.m.)

Eurozone – Sentix Investor Confidence for April (4:30 a.m.)

U.S. – ADP Employment Change Weekly (8:15 a.m.)

U.S. – Durable Goods Orders for February (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $70 Billion in 6-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

Fed’s Goolsbee (Chicago, Non‑voter) Speaks (12:35 p.m.)

Treasury Auctions $58 Billion in 3-Year Notes (1 p.m.)

U.S. – Consumer Credit for February (3 p.m.)

U.S. - American Petroleum Institute Crude Oil Inventory Data (4:30 p.m.)

Fed’s Jefferson (Vice Chair, Voter) Speaks (5:50 p.m.)