Ten Stories Moving the Market

President Trump has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks; the president has privately informed advisers he thinks the conflict is in its final stages, urging them to stick to the four-to-six-week timeline he has outlined publicly – WSJ. (Why you should care – Trump is said to have floated the idea of U.S. access to Iranian oil as part of a ceasefire deal)

The White House insisted that peace talks with Iran are ongoing, even as Tehran publicly rejected U.S. overtures and issued fresh conditions of its own to end the conflict that’s wreaked havoc across the Middle East and global markets – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the U.S. is saying it will intensify strikes against if Iran doesn’t sit down at the negotiating table)

Iran has told intermediaries that Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire agreement with ​the United States and Israel, linking an end of the war to ‌a halt to Israel's offensive against Hezbollah – Reuters. (Why you should care – the two sides laying out demands signals progress in the potential for ceasefire negotiations)

Iran is being less strident in private discussions to end the war than it is in public, Arab mediators said, giving them hope the diplomatic effort they are trying to spark isn’t dead on arrival – WSJ. (Why you should care – the Egyptian government is said to be prodding Iran to pause missile strikes in an attempt to end hostilities)

As the war with Iran has unfolded, the armada of tankers known as the shadow fleet have become a crucial conduit — transporting crude while conventional traffic sits stranded in the Gulf; with their signals off, this fleet is delivering loads of oil to China, the fleet’s biggest customer, as well as India – FT. (Why you should care – the lack of tracking ability means more fuel cargoes have escaped the Gulf than the media might have you believe.

U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in ​May during his first visit to China in eight years, a closely watched trip postponed due to the ongoing Iran war – Reuters. (Why you should care – the White House is said to be seeking an end to the Iran conflict prior to meeting with China)

The global energy shock driven by war in Iran risks further fueling price pressures in Australia and pushing up inflation expectations at a time of existing capacity constraints, according to Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Chris Kent – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Kent’s comments lean in the direction of further rate hikes by the RBA)

The dramatic surge in bets on higher interest rates in light of the Middle East energy shock is the latest case of the markets overreacting; it will be difficult to justify raising rates if growth is slowing and unemployment is rising, even if inflation is above target - Reuters. (Why you should care – the 2022 Ukraine invasion comparison is hard to make given interest rates were near zero at the time and much higher today)

The Federal Reserve ran an operating loss of $18.7 billion in 2025, its third straight year of losses; the loss was significantly smaller than in the previous two years. The Fed had losses of $114.3 billion in 2023 and $77.6 billion in 2024 – WSJ. (Why you should care – high borrowing costs are hampering the central bank’s ability to generate a profit due to the bond purchases made at low rates during the pandemic)

The European Central Bank will act decisively and swiftly if the current surge in energy costs risks a broader bout of inflation, though for now it’s still assessing the shock caused by the Iran war, according to President Christine Lagarde – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Lagarde is signaling she would support raising interest rates if necessary)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: CMC, OXM, SCVL

Germany - GfK Consumer Climate for April (3 a.m.)

France – Consumer Confidence for March (3:45 a.m.)

Norges Bank (Norway) Monetary Policy Announcement (5 a.m.)

ECB’s De Guindos (Vice President) Speaks (5 a.m.)

Eurozone – Private Sector Loans for February (5 a.m.)

BOE’s Breeden (Deputy Governor) Speaks (5:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Continuing Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – KC Fed Manufacturing Index for March (11 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $44 Billion in 7-Year Note (1 p.m.)

Fed’s Cook (Board Member, Voter) Speaks (4 p.m.)

Fed's Balance Sheet Update (4:30 p.m.)

Fed’s Jefferson (Vice Chair, Voter) Speaks (7 p.m.)

Fed’s Barr (Board Member, Voter) Speaks (7:10 p.m.)