Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

Iran has told regional intermediaries that for a ceasefire, the U.S. must guarantee that neither it nor Israel will strike the country in the future; Iran is particularly concerned Israel will attack again after the current war ends – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Iran keeps seeking for ways out of the conflict via back door channels, but its conditions aren’t likely to be met)

President Donald Trump said the U.S. seeks to “finish the job” in its campaign against Iran; Trump suggested American forces would stay as long as it takes to finish its objectives – Reuters. (Why you should care – the comments imply the operation may take longer than the White House’s original timeline)

The European Union warned that its inflation rate could surpass 3% this year if the war in the Middle East causes Brent oil prices to remain around $100 per barrel and gas prices stay elevated for an extended period – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – a sustained rebound in inflation growth to 3% could force the European Central Bank to begin raising interest rates once more)

Iran is said to have deployed about a dozen mines in ​the Strait of Hormuz, in a move likely to complicate the reopening of the narrow waterway, an important route for shipping oil and liquefied natural gas - Reuters. (Why you should care – oil moving through Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline should help to ease some of the supply issues caused by a Strait of Hormuz closure)

Economists at Goldman Sachs’s most pessimistic Iran conflict scenario shows oil rising back to $100 a barrel and staying elevated, wiping around half a percentage point off global growth and boosting inflation by nearly 1 percentage point over the next year – WSJ. (Why you should care – the economies in Europe and Asia are predicted to be hurt the most, the U.S. is expected to be relatively immune, while Canada and South America are seen as beneficiaries)

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said it was launching two new trade investigations into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners and into forced labor, to rebuild tariff pressure after the U.S. Supreme Court tore down much of Trump's tariff program last month – Reuters. (Why you should care – the tactic could be a way to get stalled trade negotiations over the finish line) 

The International Energy Agency said its member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks, the largest reserves distribution in history, in a bid to bring down crude prices that have soared during the war with Iran – WSJ. (Why you should care – the release equates to roughly 20 days’ worth of oil supply that normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly 40% of which goes to China)

The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady next week, but will likely raise its benchmark interest rate in April, according to more than a third of surveyed economists – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – roughly 70% of economists expect a rate hike to take place at one of the three meetings between April and July)

U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases; the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% on an annualized basis, matching last month’s increase – Reuters. (Why you should care – the February data indicates inflation is holding closer to the Fed’s 2% target, but oil prices are likely to boost overall growth in March)

Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater capped withdrawals from their multibillion-dollar private credit funds after investors sought to redeem vastly more than the vehicles allow; Cliffwater limited redemptions to 7% of shares while Morgan Stanley capped redemptions at 5% - Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the moves could stoke unease in the software sector)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: ADBE, DG, DKS, LEN, ULTA

Japan – Large Manufacturing Conditions for 1Q

Australia – Inflation Expectations for March

Sweden – CPI for February (3:00 a.m.)

BoE’s Bailey (Governor) Speaks (5:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Building Permits, Housing Starts for January (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Continuing Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Exports, Imports for January (8:30 a.m.)

Canada – Exports, Imports for January (8:30 a.m.)

Fed’s Bowman (Board Member, Voter) Speaks (11:00 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $22 Billion in 30-Year Bonds (1 p.m.)

Fed's Balance Sheet Update (4:30 p.m.)