Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

China set its most modest growth target in more than three decades, in a tacit acknowledgment that the model powering the country’s rapid rise for four decades is showing strains; the government is targeting economic growth of 4.5% to 5% for 2026 – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the government in Beijing is trying to find a way to resuscitate economic growth as the housing sector remains weak and global demand for its goods has eased)

U.S. economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace across most regions in recent weeks, though a growing number reported flat or declining activity, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey – Federal Reserve. (Why you should care – weakening economic activity supports the case for more Fed rate cuts)

Chip designer Broadcom projected its artificial intelligence chip revenue would exceed $100 billion in 2027, signaling surging demand for custom ​chips; CEO Hock Tan said the company’s visibility has dramatically improved – Reuters. (Why you should care – Broadcom typically doesn’t guide beyond a single quarter, so multi‑year visibility is a major tell about demand durability)

Goldman Sachs Asset Management Global Co-Head of Private Credit James Reynolds said the private credit sector remains resilient, with few borrowers struggling to meet loan payments; Reynolds said non-payments remain low, in the 1% to 2% range – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – this contradicts the current bearish narrative around private credit stress, Blue Owl’s gating, and fears of rising defaults)

Australia and Canada said they had signed new agreements ‌on critical minerals as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made a landmark address to the Australian parliament, a sign of the developing bond between the "middle powers" – Reuters. (Why you should care – this is part of a broader push by Group of Seven member countries to diversify their technology supply chains away from China)

Operatives from Iran's Ministry of Intelligence signaled openness to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency to talks on ‌ending the war; the offer was made through an unnamed country's spy agency – NY Times. (Why you should care – typically, where there’s smoke there’s fire, even though Iran later denied the report)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House will roll out a series of measures aimed at stabilizing oil shipments through the Persian Gulf, signaling that the government is prepared to step in as geopolitical tensions threaten one of the world’s most critical energy corridors – CNBC. (Why you should care – this goes against the narrative of oil prices exploding higher, causing inflation growth to rise)

U.S. President Donald Trump officially nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to be the ‌U.S. central bank's next chair, the White House said, putting the president one step closer to installing a rate-cut-friendly Fed chief – Reuters. (Why you should care – Warsh’s approval looks to be in doubt unless the White House drops its criminal investigation of Chair Jerome Powell)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump’s recently announced 15% global tariff will likely be implemented sometime this week, rising from its current rate of 10%; Bessent also predicted that U.S. tariff rates would, by August, effectively return to where they stood before the Supreme Court recently struck down the often-steeper duties – CNBC. (Why you should care – a move to 15% would be slightly below the levels prior to the Supreme Court announcement and could create difficulty in trade talks)

Kraken has been awarded a limited purpose account by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, making it the first digital asset bank to gain direct access to the U.S. central bank’s payment infrastructure – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the approval should lower the operational costs for the company, paves the way for other banks to receive similar access, and could lead to increased issuance of stablecoins down the road) 

Economic Calendar:

Earnings – BABA, BJ, BURL, CIEN, COO, COST, GAP, JD, KR, M, MRVL

Australia – Exports, Imports for January

France – Industrial Production for January (2:45 a.m.)

ECB’s De Guindos (Vice President) Speaks (3:50 a.m.)

ECB’s Nagel (Germany) Speaks (5 a.m.)

Eurozone – Retail Sales for January (5 a.m.)

U.S. – Challenger Job Cuts for February (7:30 a.m.)

ECB Meeting Minutes (7:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Exports, Imports for January (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Continuing Claims (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Factory Orders for January (10 a.m.)

ECB’s Lagarde (President) Speaks (12 p.m.)

Fed’s Bowman (Board Member, Voter) Speaks (1:15 p.m.)

Fed's Balance Sheet Update (4:30 p.m.)