Ten Stories Moving the Market

HP said it expected volatility in memory chips to persist even into next year and forecast a slump in its PC shipments; the personal devices maker said it expects adjusted profit for fiscal 2026 ending October 31 to be at the low end of its previously issued forecast of $2.90 to $3.20 per share – Reuters. (Why you should care – the company said it’s making supply-chain changes and raising prices to adjust)

AI use is no longer optional if you work in tech; while many sectors are still experimenting with artificial intelligence, the tech industry has moved to the next phase: tracking their workers’ use of AI tools—and enforcing it if they have to – WSJ. (Why you should care – this goes against the media narrative late last year that companies were deciding not to use AI)

Workday Chief Executive Officer Aneel Bhusri said leading AI companies like Anthropic — which investors fear will disrupt the software industry — actually use his company’s products; Workday makes software for office tasks such as payroll and employee management – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Bhusri noted that his company’s software provides the statutory and regulatory guardrails that allow AI to work, going against the current market narrative that vibe coding will replace software)

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said a deal with the U.S. was "within reach, but only if diplomacy is given priority," days ahead of an expected fresh round of talks between the two sides in Geneva – Reuters. (Why you should care – the Pentagon is said to be wary of initiating a protracted military campaign in the Middle East)

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he doesn’t expect the adoption of artificial intelligence technology to totally upend the U.S. job market; Waller said he expects businesses and workers to harness the power of AI as a tool to boost productivity and growth – Reuters. (Why you should care – Waller said the central bank is working to align the activities of the 12 regional banks with the goals of the entire Fed)

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down many of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs could help cool inflation but may also may cause more uncertainty for businesses; Goolsbee said he’d like to see progress on inflation that shows we are on a path back to 2% - Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Goolsbee, a non-voter this year, said he remains optimistic about more rate cuts later this year)

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she believes it will be appropriate to leave rates on hold for some time; Collins said she believes we’re seeing signs of stability in the labor market – Reuters. (Why you should care – Collins, a non-voter, said she expects to see inflation pressures cooling off later this year)

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voiced apprehension over more rate hikes in a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week; the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper said Takaichi took a “tougher stance” than in their previous meeting in November – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Takaichi is said to favor holding off on further rate hikes)

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said it is possible that he will back another rate cut at the March meeting of policymakers; Bailey has been the decisive voter on the Monetary Policy Committee over recent meetings, switching his vote to back a cut in December, and then again to secure a hold in February – WSJ. (Why you should care – the BOE expects inflation growth could hit its 2% target by the time April data is released)

U.S. President Donald Trump’s new global tariffs went into effect at 10%, kicking off a White House effort to preserve the president’s trade agenda after the Supreme Court struck down his original sweeping duties – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – if the 10% rate holds, it would be a discount relative to where levies were last year)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: A, CRM, DEO, HSBC, LOW, NVDA, PNW, PSTG, SNPS, SNOW, STRL, TJX, ZM

RBA’s Bullock (Governor) Speaks

Australia – CPI for January

Germany – GDP (Preliminary) for Q4 (2 a.m.)

Germany – GfK Consumer Climate Index for March (2 a.m.)

France – Consumer Confidence for February (2:45 a.m.)

U.S. - MBA Mortgage Applications (7 a.m.)

Fed’s Barkin (Richmond, Non‑voter) Speaks (9:30 a.m.)

U.S. - Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventory Data (10:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $28 Billion in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $70 Billion in 5-Year Notes (1 p.m.)