Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

Advanced Micro Devices forecast first-quarter sales of roughly $9.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million, compared to the consensus estimate for $9.39 billion; the company said its new, more powerful AI chips won’t be ready until the back half of the year – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – while the revenue guidance was better than anticipated, the failure to meet the high end estimate of $10 billion was seen as a disappointment)

The U.S. shot down an Iranian drone aimed at the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, and a U.S.-flagged ship outran an attempt by armed Iranian gunboats to force it to stop, as tensions heated up in the Persian Gulf – WSJ. (Why you should care – the actions threaten to put a halt to planned talks in Turkey between the U.S. and Iran in Turkey later this week, stoking geopolitical concerns) 

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran resigned on Tuesday from his position as chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, fulfilling a pledge he made to the Senate as his assignment at the central bank becomes longer-lasting – Reuters. (Why you should care – the decision suggests Miran, a dovish policymaker, intends to stay at the Fed longer than previously expected, with the potential for a possible board nomination)

Nvidia is nearing a deal to invest $20 billion in OpenAI as part of its latest funding round, marking the chipmaker’s single biggest investment in the ChatGPT developer – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – OpenAI is seeking to raise $100 billion this round, with Amazon and Softbank expected to make up the balance)

Bond-market investors are ramping up bets on higher long‑dated Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve as incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to press for interest rate cuts while shrinking the U.S. central bank's balance sheet; Warsh's past preference for a materially smaller Fed balance sheet, currently around $6.59 trillion, implies a withdrawal of meaningful government demand for Treasuries - Reuters. (Why you should care – shrinking the balance sheet would be akin to raising interest rates)

Software makers’ shares dropped after a new AI automation tool from Anthropic heightened concerns that their core businesses are at risk of being displaced; Morgan Stanley analysts said Anthropic recently launched new capabilities for its Claude Cowork to the legal space, heightening competition within the software sector – WSJ. (Why you should care – the selloff has made Microsoft the cheapest of the Magnificent Seven stocks from a price-to-earnings multiple perspective, despite robust Azure and Intelligent Cloud revenue growth)

Oil refiners on the U.S. Gulf Coast are struggling to absorb a rapid surge in Venezuelan crude shipments since last month's flagship $2 billion supply deal between Caracas and Washington, pressuring prices and leaving some volumes unsold, according to traders and shipping data - Reuters. (Why you should care – the supply increase should boost domestic gasoline supplies, eventually weighing on prices and inflation growth)

The House of Representatives passed funding legislation to end a partial government shutdown; the House voted 217-214 to fund a large portion of the government through the rest of the fiscal year, which ends September 30 – WSJ. (Why you should care – the two sides have until February 13 to find a funding agreement for the Department of Homeland Security)

Chipotle Mexican Grill forecast annual comparable sales below Wall Street estimates as budget-conscious consumers have increasingly pulled back spending on dining out; Chipotle now expects fiscal 2026 same-store sales to be about flat, compared with the consensus expectation for a 2% rise – Reuters. (Why you should care – Chipotle had previously said it expects consumer spending to remain under pressure in early 2026)

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to use recent rupee strength to add to its U.S. dollar reserves; such a move would come on the heels of the recent trade agreement reached by the U.S. and India – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – a weaker rupee could boost the sale of Indian-made goods in the U.S.)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: ABBV, ARM, BSX, GOOGL, JCI, LLY, MCK, NVO, NVS, ORLY, PSX, QCOM, UBER

China – Caixin Services, Composite PMI for January

Japan – au Jibun Bank Japan Services, Composite PMI (Final) for January

Riksbank (Sweden) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (3:30 a.m.)

Eurozone – HCOB Eurozone Services, Composite PMI (Final) for January (4 a.m.)

U.K. – S&P Global U.K. Services, Composite PMI (Final) for January (4:30 a.m.)

Eurozone – CPI (Preliminary) for January (5 a.m.)

U.S. - MBA Mortgage Applications (7 a.m.)

U.S. – ADP Nonfarm Payrolls for January (8:15 a.m.)

U.S. – S&P Global U.S. Services, Composite PMI (Final) for January (9:45 a.m.)

U.S. – ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI for January (10 a.m.)

U.S. - Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventory Data (10:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Total vehicle sales for January (2 p.m.)

Fed’s Cook (Board Member, Voter) Speaks (6:30 p.m.)