Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

Notices of impending mass layoffs by U.S. companies surged in October to among the highest levels on record, according to a tally by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; some 39,006 Americans were given advance notice as required under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act last month – Bloomberg. (Why you should care- you have to go back to 2008, 2009, 2020, and May of this year for higher tallies)

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold his first bilateral meeting with new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a closely watched event that may provide hints on how soon the central bank will resume its rate-hike cycle – Reuters. (Recent yen weakness has increased speculation that Takaichi may be forced to back down on her calls for easier monetary policy and increased fiscal spending)

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller repeated his view that the central bank should again lower interest rates when policymakers meet in December, citing a weak labor market and monetary policy that is hurting low- and middle-income consumers – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Waller has been the most prescient of central bank policy makers when it comes to the evolving economic outlook)

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested the central bank should proceed slowly with rate cuts given the evolving balance of risks between inflation and employment growth – Federal Reserve. (Why you should care – Jefferson noted downside risk to employment have increased with upside risks to inflation have started to ease)

China's Vice Premier He Lifeng and German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil agreed that the two countries should strengthen commercial ties and bring an end to months of trade tensions between the world's second- and third-largest economies – Reuters. (Why you should care – such an agreement could put Germany at odds with other European Union nations)

U.S. President Donald Trump said China is in the process of buying soybeans, and importers in China have purchased seven to 10 cargoes from American farmers; the Trump administration said Beijing agreed to buy at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, but so far only 232,000 tons were destined for China – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the increased purchases should help to ease recent speculation that China may not honor its end of the recent trade commitment)

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway acquired 17.9 million shares of Google parent Alphabet during the third quarter, providing an endorsement of the tech giant's artificial intelligence efforts amid heightened worries over a looming bubble – Reuters. (Why you should care – the company’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 25 times is a discount compared to Microsoft and Nvidia)

The Bank of England’s regulatory arm is lifting the amount that savers are guaranteed to get back in case of the failure of a financial institution, going further than plans it had floated earlier this year – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the upward adjustment is likely to boost confidence in the country’s financial and banking system)

Amazon will $15 billion from its first U.S. dollar bond offering in three years, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as big tech firms ramp up investments in AI infrastructure – Reuters. (Why you should care – the raise is likely to stoke pessimism about large cap technology companies’ capital expenditure plans)

The S&P 500 Index closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 139 sessions, breaking the second-longest stretch of this century above the closely watched trend line – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the technical breakdown could trigger more selling by quant-based CTAs and risk-parity funds, potentially causing the market to test its 100-day moving average at 6,532)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: HD, MDT

Japan – Bank Lending for October

U.K. – Average Earnings Index for September (2:00 a.m.)

U.K. – Unemployment Rate for September (2:00 a.m.)

Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speaks (3:20 a.m.)

Sweden – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (3:30 a.m.)

Eurozone – ZEW Economic Sentiment for November (5:00 a.m.)

U.S. – NFIB Small Business Optimism for October (6:00 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $95 Billion in 6-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

BOE’s Dhingra (Board Member) Speaks (12:00 p.m.)

U.S. – ADP Employment Change Weekly (1:45 p.m.)

U.S. - American Petroleum Institute Crude Oil Inventory Data (4:30 p.m.)

Fed’s Barr (Board Member, Voter) Speaks (10:25 p.m.)