Five Stories Moving the Market

Five Stories Moving the Market:

U.S. President Donald Trump gave Iran a two-day deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or have its power plants bombed, upping the ante in a war now in its fourth week with no sign of de-escalation; Iran countered that — if its power facilities are attacked — it would close the Strait of Hormuz “completely” – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the statements are stoking concerns that the conflict will only escalate, boosting the outlook for oil prices and inflation growth)

Iran is ready to let Japanese-related vessels pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Kyodo news; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran ‌has started talks with Tokyo, including with Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, about possibly opening the strait – Reuters. (Why you should care – Iran has already allowed nations including China, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Iraq, to secure safe passage through Hormuz, potentially de-escalating the global oil supply threat)

Americans’ tax refunds are averaging about $350 higher than this time last year but so far running well below the extra $1,000 President Donald Trump promised after passage of his signature economic legislation; with almost half of anticipated returns filed, refunds averaged $3,623 through March 13, 11% higher than the same point last year, according to Internal Revenue Service data – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – lower than expected tax returns imply economic growth may not be as strong as anticipated)

Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve ​Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders; the move locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military - Reuters. (Why you should care – the decision will go into effect by the end of the year and is expected to generate more stable funding for Palantir from the military)

Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most awkward Federal Reserve leadership transitions in decades; the economy has grown more complicated than when he promised interest-rate cuts last year while campaigning for President Trump to nominate him for the job – WSJ. (Why you should care – if Warsh is confirmed as the next Fed chair, he could have a difficult time delivering an interest rate cut right out of the gate)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: HUBG, WRN

Fed’s Powell (Chairman) Speaks (Saturday)

U.S. – Chicago Fed National Activity for February (8:30 a.m.)

U.S. – Construction Spending for January (10 a.m.)

Eurozone – Consumer Confidence for March (11 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $89 Billion in 13-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $77 Billion in 26-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

ECB’s Lane (Chief Economist) Speaks (12 p.m.)