Ten Stories Moving the Market

Ten Stories Moving the Market:

The U.S. cleared the way for Iran to sell oil in dollars, including to U.S. buyers, a reversal that came as Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors to return as early as this week – WSJ. (Why you should care - the Treasury Department waived longstanding sanctions on those sales for two months while talks continue)

Diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran has translated into relief at the pump for Americans, with gasoline ​prices falling for a sixth straight week and marking a 15% drop ‌from their May peak – Reuters. (Why you should care – the drop in gasoline prices should weigh on headline inflation growth moving forward)

Indian inflation remains anchored below the central bank’s target despite the recent energy shock, as pass-through to domestic prices has been limited, according to the Reserve Bank of India – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – the statement means the RBI is unlikely to raise interest rates in the near future)

The U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan affordable housing ​bill as Congress attempts to finish work on it by the end of this week and ‌clear the way for President Donald Trump to sign the legislation into law; the measure is designed to increase the availability of affordable single-family homes at a time when high consumer prices are voters' main worry ahead of November midterm elections – Reuters. (Why you should care – easing housing prices could also put a lid on inflation growth)

China narrowed its cumulative fiscal deficit for the first time in more than two years, pressing ahead with austerity despite muted domestic demand and slowing economic growth; China’s government shrank spending by roughly 4.1% in the first five months of this year – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be north of 300%, but it has not publicly disclosed the data in many years)

SpaceX is expected to issue more than $20 billion in bonds, hot on the heels of its recent initial public offering; underwriters are already speaking with prospective investors, and the offering is expected to price as soon as today – WSJ. (Why you should care – the potential debt rise is stoking concerns about increased borrowing from technology companies via the equity and debt markets)

Qualcomm is in advanced talks to acquire Modular in a transaction valuing the artificial intelligence infrastructure software company at about $4 billion; Qualcomm has been pursuing tuck-in acquisitions in recent years after its deal for NXP Semiconductors was scrapped when it didn’t receive regulatory approval – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – Qualcomm is likely to trying to add a software product to create an Nvidia-like ecosystem)

Micron Technology said it has signed an agreement with Anthropic that includes supply of memory and storage products, ​and a strategic investment in the IPO-bound AI ‌company's latest funding round – Reuters. (Why you should care – the agreement speaks to the significant demand that remains for AI-related infrastructure products like semiconductors)

Technology stocks will extend their rally for at least another couple of quarters as artificial intelligence infrastructure spending accelerates beyond the pace of the past two years, according to Columbia Threadneedle Investments’ Tiffany Wade; she expects earnings and revenue estimates to be revised higher, driving valuations – Bloomberg. (Why you should care – earnings reports in late July are likely the next big catalyst for the technology sector)

American retailers and manufacturers are learning to love trains again; now that trucking rates are climbing toward their highest levels in four years, some businesses are deciding a slower, cheaper route across the country suits them fine – WSJ. (Why you should care – the shift by retailers toward transporting good by rail should help to boost profitability moving forward)

Economic Calendar:

Earnings: FDX, KBH, KFY, WOR

Eurozone – HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMI for June (4 a.m.)

U.K. – S&P Global U.K. Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMI (Preliminary) for June (4:30 a.m.)

ECB’s Lane (Chief Economist) Speaks (4:30 a.m.)

BoE’s Breeden (Deputy Governor) Speaks (4:55 a.m.)

U.S. – ADP Employment Change Weekly (8:15 a.m.)

BoC’s Macklem (Governor) Speaks (9 a.m.)

U.S. – S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMI (Preliminary) for June (9:45 a.m.)

U.S. – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June (10 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $65 Billion in 6-Week Bills (11:30 a.m.)

Treasury Auctions $69 Billion in 2-Year Notes (1 p.m.)

BoE’s Dhingra (Board Member) Speaks (1:30 p.m.)

U.S. - American Petroleum Institute Crude Oil Inventory Data (4:30 p.m.)

BoJ Summary of Opinions (7:50 p.m.)